Sometimes, one wonders at the mentality of GEJ's advisors.
You wonder...."Are they this naturally daft, or do they hate the man?" "Are they secretly working for APC?"
In a heated polity, leading up to an election, with a party that is falling apart, the thing PDP should crave most is STABILITY. PDP members should be seeking to tighten the bonds that hold them together so that they can move forward as one mind and win the 2015 elections. Reducing infighting, and making peace, should be the number one priority.
GEJ desperately needs friends and allies that can act as surrogates for him during his campaign. He needs allies who will help him secure a hassle free primary, and who can deliver him votes in 2015. He needs to be reaching out to politicians all over the country (especially in "enemy" areas) so that he can receive his constitutionally mandated 25%. In short, GEJ needs to be building alliances. In order to create alliances, he needs to be perceived as strong. To be perceived as strong, he needs for PDP's internal crisis to END. He needs calm.
Now...what have his advisors been doing on his behalf? Creating enemies and chaos!
When an African President allows an advisor to start talking of coups, it immediately heats the polity to a boiling point. The South Sudan crisis started because the mumu President had a relatively minor disagreement with his Vice President. Instead of reconciling with his VP and bringing his country together, he decided to fire the VP, sack the VP's supporters in government, and prematurely declare that the VP was planning a coup! The VP, his allies, and his ethnic group felt threatened by the President's words, and took up arms to defend themselves against this perceived aggression. Now the country is in anarchy and people are killing each other like chickens.
Now that GEJ has declared that his enemies are planning a coup, how will this play out in Nigeria?
My guess, is that both APC and PDP supporters will start fearing for their lives. People have not forgotten OBJ's claim of GEJ training 1000 snipers. People can clearly see how GEJ is using the police to threaten Amaechi. For young Nigerians, talks of coups are lighthearted and funny. For MANY, MANY, Nigerians (especially the 30 year old and up political class) coups are a vivid and painful memory. People have not forgotten the political assassinations that used to be common in Nigeria, even as late as 2007. For older Nigerians, declaring of coups can never be considered funny. They will never take it as a joke. GEJ has just brought Nigeria into "one chance".
Both PDP and APC politicians will be reacting very strongly to this declaration. Everyone will divide themselves along tribe and religion. Unfortunately for Jonathan, he is a member of one of the smallest tribes. The North will expect GEJ to be planning to kill them, so they will be preparing to defend themselves, and they will look for allies in the SW and Middle Belt. They will exit PDP enmasse and RUN to APC as they may see it as the only way to counter GEJ and prevent him from using the military and police to kill them like chickens. The military will experience a breakdown of trust, and high ranking officials will start looking over their shoulders at each other (which is PAINFUL because our military needs to be focusing on Boko Haram!). Expect to see chaos in the military, with divisions along ethnic and religious lines. Voices like Asari Dokubo and other warlords will start getting louder, bringing us closer to violence. Igbos will start preparing for war. The SW will be preparing for war. No one will trust anyone, and people will start shedding blood. Some of us have seen this all before.
By making that declaration, GEJ has not only destroyed PDP, but ensured that 2015 will be AT LEAST as bloody and chaotic as 2007.
God help us!
You wonder...."Are they this naturally daft, or do they hate the man?" "Are they secretly working for APC?"
In a heated polity, leading up to an election, with a party that is falling apart, the thing PDP should crave most is STABILITY. PDP members should be seeking to tighten the bonds that hold them together so that they can move forward as one mind and win the 2015 elections. Reducing infighting, and making peace, should be the number one priority.
GEJ desperately needs friends and allies that can act as surrogates for him during his campaign. He needs allies who will help him secure a hassle free primary, and who can deliver him votes in 2015. He needs to be reaching out to politicians all over the country (especially in "enemy" areas) so that he can receive his constitutionally mandated 25%. In short, GEJ needs to be building alliances. In order to create alliances, he needs to be perceived as strong. To be perceived as strong, he needs for PDP's internal crisis to END. He needs calm.
Now...what have his advisors been doing on his behalf? Creating enemies and chaos!
When an African President allows an advisor to start talking of coups, it immediately heats the polity to a boiling point. The South Sudan crisis started because the mumu President had a relatively minor disagreement with his Vice President. Instead of reconciling with his VP and bringing his country together, he decided to fire the VP, sack the VP's supporters in government, and prematurely declare that the VP was planning a coup! The VP, his allies, and his ethnic group felt threatened by the President's words, and took up arms to defend themselves against this perceived aggression. Now the country is in anarchy and people are killing each other like chickens.
Now that GEJ has declared that his enemies are planning a coup, how will this play out in Nigeria?
My guess, is that both APC and PDP supporters will start fearing for their lives. People have not forgotten OBJ's claim of GEJ training 1000 snipers. People can clearly see how GEJ is using the police to threaten Amaechi. For young Nigerians, talks of coups are lighthearted and funny. For MANY, MANY, Nigerians (especially the 30 year old and up political class) coups are a vivid and painful memory. People have not forgotten the political assassinations that used to be common in Nigeria, even as late as 2007. For older Nigerians, declaring of coups can never be considered funny. They will never take it as a joke. GEJ has just brought Nigeria into "one chance".
Both PDP and APC politicians will be reacting very strongly to this declaration. Everyone will divide themselves along tribe and religion. Unfortunately for Jonathan, he is a member of one of the smallest tribes. The North will expect GEJ to be planning to kill them, so they will be preparing to defend themselves, and they will look for allies in the SW and Middle Belt. They will exit PDP enmasse and RUN to APC as they may see it as the only way to counter GEJ and prevent him from using the military and police to kill them like chickens. The military will experience a breakdown of trust, and high ranking officials will start looking over their shoulders at each other (which is PAINFUL because our military needs to be focusing on Boko Haram!). Expect to see chaos in the military, with divisions along ethnic and religious lines. Voices like Asari Dokubo and other warlords will start getting louder, bringing us closer to violence. Igbos will start preparing for war. The SW will be preparing for war. No one will trust anyone, and people will start shedding blood. Some of us have seen this all before.
By making that declaration, GEJ has not only destroyed PDP, but ensured that 2015 will be AT LEAST as bloody and chaotic as 2007.
God help us!
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